--hidden-- | Drafted 10th
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- Recap
- Draft Results
In a stunning display of fantasy prowess, McLaurin F1 secured an impressive A+ draft grade and is now poised to conquer Lazy Dynasty League with a projected flawless 14-0-0 record. Despite picking last in the draft order, this team managed to assemble a powerhouse roster across 20 rounds, leaving rivals trembling in their virtual cleats. With a projected points total of 2028.07, McLaurin F1 seems destined for greatness, aiming for the coveted 1st place finish.
Adding a touch of strategic risk, McLaurin F1 selected Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Blake Corum from the same team, potentially doubling down on success or setting themselves up for a rollercoaster ride of fantasy emotions. While facing the 9th toughest schedule among 10 teams and dealing with a bye week 9 hurdle, McLaurin F1 remains undaunted, ready to show the fantasy world why they are the team to watch in Lazy Dynasty League.
ADP Analysis
Pick Number
Bars above zero indicate a pick was selected later than a player's ADP. Bars below zero show players that were taken earlier than their ADP.
Inside the Draft
Player Outlooks
Lamar Jackson Player Note
QB - Round 1, Pick 10 - Bye 14
2024 Rank: 40 - 2023 Rank: 40
For the first time in three seasons, Jackson was healthy for a full schedule last year, resting only for a meaningless Week 18. Good health and the playcalling of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken returned Jackson to the top five of fantasy quarterbacks and led to his second MVP award. Monken propelled Jackson to career highs for pass attempts (457) and passing yards (3,678 yards), although the Ravens still ran more than most teams. Jackson only threw 24 touchdowns, but his elite rushing picked up the slack as he averaged a league-high 5.6 yards per carry to lead all quarterbacks with 821 yards, adding five rushing TDs. He's never run for more than seven TDs in a season and probably won't go much higher than that while sharing a backfield with offseason signing Derrick Henry, but Jackson could also see an uptick in TD passes if tight end Mark Andrews enjoys better health after missing seven games last season. Wide receiver Zay Flowers gives Jackson another reliable target, with WR Rashod Bateman and TE Isaiah Likely shaping up as solid secondary options. Jackson's combination of efficient passing and elite rushing should lead to another top-five fantasy finish among quarterbacks.
Michael Wilson No new player Notes
WR - Round 2, Pick 20 - Bye 11
2024 Rank: 154 - 2023 Rank: 154
Wilson's rookie-year total of 565 yards in 13 games was impressive, considering he was a third-round pick and got most of his playing time with backup quarterbacks. He started the season strong, with at least 56 yards in five of his first eight games, and he also ended on a high note, catching 10 passes for 130 yards over the final two weeks. Wilson didn't do much in between, dealing with shoulder and neck injuries from early November to mid-December. He'll now have the chance to play with starting QB Kyler Murray for more than a couple weeks at times, but Wilson is unlikely to be more than Option C in a passing game with WR Marvin Harrison and TE Trey McBride. Apart from Harrison, the third overall pick, Wilson's competition at wide receiver doesn't look too challenging, with 29-year-old Zay Jones and slot specialist Greg Dortch being the strongest candidates for regular snaps.
Terry McLaurin No new player Notes
WR - Round 3, Pick 30 - Bye 14
2024 Rank: 55 - 2023 Rank: 55
McLaurin had a fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season last year, but it was his worst effort as a pro in terms of per-target and per-route production. The Commanders threw a ton of short passes to RBs and TEs with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and QB Sam Howell at the helm of the offense, leaving McLaurin to rely on volume of routes rather than frequency of targets and/or efficiency of production. He needed all 17 games to slither over the 1,000-yard mark (1,002) despite being in an offense that led the league with 636 pass attempts. This was the same player that scored seven TDs in 14 games as a rookie while catching passes from Dwayne Haskins and Case Keenum; and the same guy that had 1,191 yards in 2022 with Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke. But Bieniemy and Howell were too much to overcome, leaving McLaurin with career lows for yards per catch (12.7), yards per target (7.6) and yards per route (1.52). The latter mark had been 1.80 in 2021 and 2.09 in 2022, with McLaurin targeted on 22.3 percent and 21.1 percent of routes, respectively. The good news is that McLaurin shouldn't be declining too much physically (turns 29 in September) and will have a new offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) and quarterback (Jayden Daniels) in 2024.
Hollywood Brown Player Note
WR - Round 4, Pick 40 - Bye 6
2024 Rank: 107 - 2023 Rank: 107
Brown's career has been a strange one, tapering off after an impressive start and now sending him to his third team for his sixth pro season. The 25th overall pick from the 2019 Draft hasn't exactly been a bust, but he's never become much of a threat gaining yards after the catch, perhaps making him more vulnerable than other receivers to poor QB play. The speedy Brown needs to earn his yards by getting open downfield, but efficiency was an issue each of the past three seasons when he ended up playing a large chunk of the year with backup quarterbacks. He had a career-high 1,008 yards for the Ravens in 2021, but it took him 146 targets to get there and he's otherwise never seen more than 107 in a season. A fast start turned into a slow finish with Lamar Jackson sidelined, and the same thing happened in 2022 with Kyler Murray in Arizona. Last year, Brown got injured shortly after Murray returned, thus finishing with a career-low 574 receiving yards (in 14 games). The good news is that Brown will now be a part of Kansas City's elite passing game, albeit on a one-year contract with a base value of $7 million. The extent of Brown's usage will partially depend on the development of first-round pick Xavier Worthy and the legal situation with 2023 second-rounder Rashee Rice.
Cole Kmet No new player Notes
TE - Round 5, Pick 50 - Bye 7
2024 Rank: 168 - 2023 Rank: 168
Kmet has turned into one of the top red-zone performers among tight ends, piling up 13 touchdowns and 26 RZ targets over the last two seasons after scoring only twice across his first two campaigns. Most of that recent success came with Justin Fields under center, so Kmet faces the challenge of building chemistry with a new QB after the Bears parted ways with Fields and drafted Caleb Williams first overall. Chicago's passing game has a far higher ceiling with Williams, but Kmet's target share (19.4 percent last year) likely will drop after the Bears traded for WR Keenan Allen and drafted WR Rome Odunze ninth overall. The team also added TE depth with the signing of Gerald Everett, who could replace Kmet in some obvious passing situations. There are obvious challenges for Kmet to match last year's total of 90 targets, but it isn't out of the question if Chicago's overall pass volume spikes with the switch from Fields to Williams.
Jordan Addison New Player Note
WR - Round 6, Pick 60 - Bye 6
2024 Rank: 102 - 2023 Rank: 102
Addison joined the Vikings as a first-round pick last year and quickly looked the part, scoring seven touchdowns in his first eight games despite missing most of the offseason program with a minor injury. He never got huge volume, even when Justin Jefferson and later T.J. Hockenson missed time, but Addison acquitted himself well across 17 games and 108 targets, catching 70 passes (64.8 percent) for 911 yards (13.0 per catch) and 10 touchdowns. Five of his TDs spanned 37 or more yards, including two from Nick Mullens late in the season after Kirk Cousins suffered an Achilles' tear. Addison's thin frame (5-11, 173) wasn't a problem, and he played faster than his mediocre 40 time (4.49 seconds) would seem to suggest. The Vikings figure to put more on his plate in Year 2, but it could be hard to repeat last year's stellar efficiency while catching passes from Sam Darnold. There's also an offseason DWI arrest lingering over Addison, albeit with the possibility a suspension wouldn't come until 2025.
Garrett Wilson No new player Notes
WR - Round 7, Pick 70 - Bye 12
2024 Rank: 9 - 2023 Rank: 9
Wilson has been one of the most heavily targeted receivers since New York took him 10th overall in 2022, ranking eighth in targets as a rookie (147) and fourth last year (168). His production has been much less impressive, but there seems to be a near-consensus that Wilson's poor efficiency through two seasons (56.5 percent catch rate, 6.8 YPT) is strictly a product of terrible QB play and not any fault of his own. The second assumption underlying the expectation of a 2024 breakout is that 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers -- coming back from a torn Achilles -- will be much better than the other quarterbacks Wilson has played with (a rather low bar to clear). Both assumptions are probably accurate, but that still hints at a bit of added downside risk when using a first-round fantasy pick on Wilson rather than a player that has already put forth production commensurate with the early draft slot (e.g. A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua). On the other hand, Wilson arguably has an even higher ceiling than those two, as he's faster (4.38), more agile and doesn't have another stud receiver on his team with potential to siphon off well over 100 targets. The Jets mostly focused on upgrading their O-line this offseason, with the big skill-position additions being WR Mike Williams (coming off an ACL tear and turning 30 in October) and WR Malachi Corley (a third-round pick who had the lowest aDOT of any receiver prospect in the 2024 Draft). The offense figures to run through Wilson and RB Breece Hall, just as it did last season only much more efficiently.
Trey McBride No new player Notes
TE - Round 8, Pick 80 - Bye 11
2024 Rank: 49 - 2023 Rank: 49
McBride finished between fifth and seventh among tight ends in targets (106), catches (81) and receiving yards (825) last season, but those numbers don't tell the whole story. The 2022 second-round pick was a backup for seven games before Zach Ertz injured his quadriceps, and then from Week 8 onward McBride had the largest target share (26.8 percent) among TEs while ranking top three at the position in catches (66), yards (655) and targets (85). After Ertz's injury, McBride averaged 58.3 snaps per game and scored each of his three TDs for the season. The Cardinals didn't re-sign Ertz in the offseason and let WR Marquise Brown walk as well, but they drafted WR Marvin Harrison fourth overall, took TE Tip Reiman in the third round and signed WR Zay Jones. With the dust settled on Arizona's offseason overhaul, Harrison and McBride are the clear favorites to see a large number of targets from QB Kyler Murray, who heads to training camp healthy after an ACL tear cost him six games in 2022 and nine more in 2023.
D'Andre Swift No new player Notes
RB - Round 9, Pick 90 - Bye 7
2024 Rank: 77 - 2023 Rank: 77
He still hasn't quite fulfilled the promise he showed as a second-round pick out of Georgia in 2020, but last year was a new mark of progress for Swift, who held up as a lead back for the first time in his four NFL seasons. He averaged 14.3 carries and 2.4 carries on 39.4 snaps per game, with the only contest he missed being Week 18 for rest purposes. It was a stark contrast to his three-year run in Detroit, where Swift missed three or four games each season and had injury-related workload limitations on a number of other occasions. From a fantasy standpoint he wasn't any more valuable than he'd been in Detroit, as the added rushing yards were canceled out by decreased per-game averages for TDs and receiving stats while sharing an offense with QB Jalen Hurts. Moving to Chicago on a three-year, $24 million contract could give Swift a chance to combine his best elements from Detroit and Philadelphia, or it might end up hurting him (if the Bears want to use Khalil Herbert and/or Roschon Johnson in significant roles off the bench). Neither Herbert nor Johnson outranks the new guy in their respective area of specialty, but workload limitations are possible all the same, if only to keep Swift fresh and healthy throughout the year.
Cooper Kupp No new player Notes
WR - Round 10, Pick 100 - Bye 6
2024 Rank: 23 - 2023 Rank: 23
In 2021, Kupp had one of the best fantasy seasons of all time, catching 145 passes for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. In 2022, he was again the leading PPR scorer among WRs... until a high-ankle injury ended his season after nine games. In 2023, Kupp came back healthy for training camp but then missed the first four games with a hamstring injury, and his per-game production fell off a cliff once he returned. After topping 100 yards in his first two appearances, Kupp had six consecutive games with fewer than 50 receiving yards. He bounced back with three TDs and 305 yards over his final four regular-season games, but the overall production and averages still were far shy of Puka Nacua's. The incredible rookie season from Nacua could make him the priority in Sean McVay's passing game, especially if Kupp's downturn last season was more about age (he's 31 now) and less about struggling to come back from injuries. It's also possible the targets shift more toward Kupp if a healthier offseason leads to a healthier season, as there were times in 2023 when he still looked like the same guy from 2021-22.
Alvin Kamara No new player Notes
RB - Round 11, Pick 110 - Bye 12
2024 Rank: 60 - 2023 Rank: 60
It's difficult to project Kamara's fantasy football prospects going forward because 2023 marked the third straight year of decline for his once-elite rushing efficiency and touchdown production. Part of that drop off was for reasons outside of his control -- namely the retirement of Drew Brees and subsequent declines in the Saints' QB and O-line play -- but it's also fair to wonder if the 29-year-old RB has lost a step. Although Kamara took more carries per game each of the past three years than in any of his four seasons playing alongside Brees, there's been a massive trade off in terms of rushing efficiency, dropping from 5.0 YPC in 2017-20 all the way to 3.9 YPC in 2021-23. Kamara also lost a lot of his receiving volume post-Brees, but that part rebounded last season (86 targets in 13 games) with Derek Carr at quarterback. After serving a three-game suspension to start the year, Kamara averaged 19.6 touches and 42.9 touches over the next 13 games, scoring six TDs and tying for the second most targets (86) among running backs. Free-agent addition Jamaal Williams averaged just 7.8 touches for 25.3 yards in the games both he and Kamara played, but 2023 third-round pick Kendre Miller could prove more of a threat in 2024 after his strong finish to an injury-marred rookie year.
Christian McCaffrey New Player Note
RB - Round 12, Pick 120 - Bye 9
2024 Rank: 1 - 2023 Rank: 1
McCaffrey has nothing left to prove at this point and the San Francisco offense is a well-demonstrated product that has no real risk of falling off soon. No other running back has as much going in his favor in terms of talent, volume and surrounding support. The 49ers offense remained balanced last year, with Brock Purdy leading the league in yards per attempt (9.1) and McCaffrey leading all qualified RBs in yards per carry (5.4) In an offense with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, it's McCaffrey who lapped the field in both total yards and touchdowns both of the past two seasons. There's some level of durability concern given that he always handles huge workloads and had his 2020 and 2021 seasons ruined by injuries, but it's not like McCaffrey has been injured at a high rate per snap/touch relative to normal standards for NFL running backs. He claimed 668 touches from scrimmage over the last two seasons (152 receptions) and did so with league-leading efficiency. McCaffrey is averaging 22.5 PPR points per game for his career after an NFL-high 24.5 last year, making it hard to argue against him as the top overall fantasy pick.
Nico Collins No new player Notes
WR - Round 13, Pick 130 - Bye 14
2024 Rank: 24 - 2023 Rank: 24
Collins was one of the fantasy breakout stars of 2023, recording more receiving yards in 15 games (1,297) than he had in his first two seasons combined (927). He started 15 of 29 games over his first two years but never really broke through in bad offenses, producing 7.4 and 7.3 yards per target. He rocketed up to 11.9 YPT last year, third best in the league, and did it while drawing 7.3 targets per game (7.7 if you exclude the game he left after three snaps). Collins caught 13 of 19 targets 20-plus yards downfield -- a league-high 68.4 percent catch rate on deep passes -- and his 560 YAC ranked sixth among WRs. He was effective at every level of the field, with his combination of size (6-4, 215) and speed (4.43) proving useful both for getting open downfield and for picking up yards after short receptions. Collins should continue to have a strong connection with QB C.J. Stroud, but even then it's almost impossible to match the 2023 efficiency, and now there's some concern about target competition with trade acquisition Stefon Diggs joining Collins and Tank Dell at wide receiver. The Texans signed Collins to an extension this spring and only have Diggs under contract for a year, so the long-term plan at WR hasn't necessarily changed.
Puka Nacua New Player Note
WR - Round 14, Pick 140 - Bye 6
2024 Rank: 13 - 2023 Rank: 13
Depending on your fantasy league, Nacua was either one of the best late-round picks or one of the most valuable waiver adds in the history of the league. Taken in the fifth round of last year's draft, Nacua didn't have the flashy markers many look for in prospects, lacking both big-time college production (1,749 career receiving yards) and standout size-adjusted speed (4.57-second pro-day 40 at 6-1, 201). He did generate hype during Rams training camp, however, and piled up 52 targets and 501 receiving yards before Cooper Kupp made his 2023 season debut Week 5. Nacua then averaged 78.6 yards on 8.6 targets in the 12 regular-season games he and Kupp played together -- Kupp averaged 61.4 yards on 7.9 targets in those same games -- and had 181 yards in the Rams' lone playoff game. A healthier season from Kupp might change the target distribution some, but the Rams lack other threats for big-time volume, returning Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell at wide receiver while bringing in Colby Parkinson (career high of 34 targets) as the "big" addition at tight end. Nacua seems to have become the poster boy for prioritizing GPS tracking over 40-yard-dash times and yards per route over total production when evaluating WR prospects. Whatever the case, his ability is hard to deny after he finished last season top 10 among qualified WRs in target rate, yards per route, YAC average, total YAC, yards against zone coverage and yards against man coverage --- plus a slew of other states -- en route to a rookie-record 1,486 receiving yards.
Justin Herbert New Player Note
QB - Round 15, Pick 150 - Bye 5
2024 Rank: 134 - 2023 Rank: 134
It wasn't long ago that Herbert looked like a perennial top-five fantasy QB. The last couple years, though, he's been hampered by injuries and inconsistent performance. Last year, he struggled for much of the season before a finger injury ended his campaign with four games remaining. His 6.9 YPA ranked 21st among qualified passers, and he finished with career lows for passing yards per game (241.1) and completion percentage (65.1). This season, he'll look to get back on track with a revamped offense under new coach Jim Harbaugh, but that might be easier said than done. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman is known for directing run-first offenses and figures to put Herbert well below his career average of 39.1 pass attempts per game, which means any fantasy gains will need to come from superior efficiency and/or rushing stats. The team no longer has RB Austin Ekeler or WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, having replaced them this offseason with cheaper alternatives (J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in the backfield, with journeyman DJ Chark and second-round pick Ladd McConkey at wide receiver). The Chargers lack major receiving threats at running back and tight end, likely leaving McConkey and returning starter Joshua Palmer as Herbert's top weapons in the new-look offense. It's a suboptimal setup for fantasy production, with the only real positives being Herbert's talent and an improved offensive line.
Jonathon Brooks No new player Notes
RB - Round 16, Pick 160 - Bye 11
2024 Rank: 109 - 2023 Rank: 109
Expectations are high for Brooks as the first running back selected in the 2024 Draft (46th overall), and he should eventually establish himself as Carolina's starter. The more difficult question is whether Brooks can earn the distinction as a rookie, returning from a Nov. 11 ACL tear and joining an offense with an incumbent starter at running back (but a new coaching staff). Brooks is young even for a rookie, turning 21 in late July, potentially adding to the challenge of his transition after just one collegiate season with considerable playing time. Brooks looked like a much better pass catcher than Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard, but the impressive 11-game stretch at Texas might not mean much for early season roles if Hubbard is the one coach Dave Canales trusts to pass block. Ultimately, however, the competition around Brooks figures to be less important than his own development, which will be slightly delayed as he open the regular season on the PUP list.
Blake Corum Player Note
RB - Round 17, Pick 170 - Bye 6
2024 Rank: 117 - 2023 Rank: 117
Kyren Williams did a superb job in 2023 and coach Sean McVay no doubt wants to issue the proper recognition for the example Williams set, but at around 195 pounds Williams has had trouble withstanding the beating of playing running back in the NFL. The selection of Corum in the third round gives the Rams the means of creating production up to Williams' 2023 standard by rotating the two players, in theory keeping them both healthy all year after Williams suffered a broken foot and two high-ankle sprains through the first two seasons of his NFL career. At 5-foot-8, 205 pounds Corum is small but still meaningfully bigger than Williams, not to mention much faster and quicker. It will be tough for the Rams to keep Corum on the bench, especially as the season progresses.
MarShawn Lloyd New Player Note
RB - Round 18, Pick 180 - Bye 10
2024 Rank: 171 - 2023 Rank: 171
Lloyd potentially needs development time after flashing rare explosiveness but rarer yet fumbling problems throughout his college career at South Carolina and USC. Between injuries and his fumbling problems Lloyd was kept below the 300-touch mark in his collegiate career, yet he still somehow managed to fumble 10 times. At 5-foot-9, 220 pounds with 4.46 speed there is clearly a lot of raw athletic ability to work with here, but with Josh Jacobs around and very well paid the Packers have no reason to test Lloyd anytime soon. Lloyd needs to worry about pressing Emanuel Wilson for the backup role before the subject of playing time becomes serious.
Xavier Legette No new player Notes
WR - Round 19, Pick 190 - Bye 11
2024 Rank: 210 - 2023 Rank: 210
Legette seems to come with less hype than normal for a rookie WR drafted in the first round, in part because he was taken with the last pick of the round (32) and in part because he had just one big season in college. Landing in Carolina doesn't help either, even if there's limited optimism that new coach Dave Canales can salvage second-year QB Bryce Young after his miserable rookie year. The Panthers are counting on Legette to help, hoping that 4.39 speed in a RB-sized frame (6-1, 221) can make the rookie a factor on deep balls and screens even if he needs more time to work out the finer points of his position. He was a four-star recruit who had only 423 yards over his first four years at South Carolina, before blowing up in 2023 for a 71-1,255-7 receiving line. The massive final season combined with impressive workout numbers turbo-charged Legette's draft stock and now have him in a good position to get playing time early on. The Panthers don't have much else at wide receiver besides veterans Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson, both of whom tend to catch short passes and are considerably smaller and slower than Legette.
Roman Wilson New Player Note
WR - Round 20, Pick 200 - Bye 9
2024 Rank: 198 - 2023 Rank: 198
The Steelers took Wilson with the 84th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, less than two months after trading Diontae Johnson to Carolina. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is known for using his TEs more and his WRs less than most coaches, but the Steelers still need someone to step up out wide across from George Pickens. While the 5-foot-11, 185-pound rookie isn't nearly as big as Pickens, Wilson's 4.39 speed (combine time) could make him an immediate threat as a field-stretcher even if he's not getting a lot of targets. It would be a familiar role, coming out of Michigan, where his college teams mostly relied on defense and running. Wilson averaged at least 2.0 yards per route and 10.1 yards per target last season, but he never ran more than 300 routes in a season and even last year was reliant on big plays and TDs more so than considerable volume (58-789-12 receiving lines). His immediate competition for playing time seems to be 162-pound slot man Calvin Austin and a slew of veteran journeyman/retreads (Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins, Scott Miller, etc.).
Team Forecast
Bye Week Points Lost
Points
Each bar represents the total projected season points for each player that's on bye that week. This chart shows any potential bye week issues.
Schedule by Opponent Points
Week
Week-by-week schedule with each opponent's projected season points. This chart shows any difficult or easy stretches in the schedule.
McLaurin F1 | ||
---|---|---|
1. | (10) | Lamar Jackson (Bal - QB) |
2. | (20) | Michael Wilson (Ari - WR) |
3. | (30) | Terry McLaurin (Was - WR) |
4. | (40) | Hollywood Brown (KC - WR) |
5. | (50) | Cole Kmet (Chi - TE) |
6. | (60) | Jordan Addison (Min - WR) |
7. | (70) | Garrett Wilson (NYJ - WR) |
8. | (80) | Trey McBride (Ari - TE) |
9. | (90) | D'Andre Swift (Chi - RB) |
10. | (100) | Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR) |
11. | (110) | Alvin Kamara (NO - RB) |
12. | (120) | Christian McCaffrey (SF - RB) |
13. | (130) | Nico Collins (Hou - WR) |
14. | (140) | Puka Nacua (LAR - WR) |
15. | (150) | Justin Herbert (LAC - QB) |
16. | (160) | Jonathon Brooks (Car - RB) |
17. | (170) | Blake Corum (LAR - RB) |
18. | (180) | MarShawn Lloyd (GB - RB) |
19. | (190) | Xavier Legette (Car - WR) |
20. | (200) | Roman Wilson (Pit - WR) |